How Rob Gronkowski trade impacts Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds
When sports betting options are limited and bettors are thirsty for action, the NFL is the gift that keeps on giving.
As if Thursday’s 2020 NFL Draft wasn’t enough, the sports betting universe received an unexpected shot in the arm Tuesday when news broke that Rob Gronkowski was coming out of retirement. But instead of returning to the New England Patriots, Gronkowski requested a trade to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so he could reunite with the only quarterback he has ever known, Tom Brady.
Bill Belichick granted Gronk his wish. New England sent the star tight end along with a seventh-round pick to Tampa Bay in exchange for a fourth-round pick.
Right on cue, sportsbooks were bombarded with Bucs futures money, forcing oddsmakers to shorten Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds, division odds, conference odds and win totals odds across the board.
Caesars adjusted the Bucs’ win total from 9 (Over -125) to 9.5 following the Gronk news. Director of Trading Jeff Davis reported a “respected” bet on the Over 9 win total. Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds moved from 17/1 to 14/1. Davis said, “I was going to leave Super Bowl at 17/1, but we took a bet on it almost immediately.” The Bucs’ odds to win the NFC went from 8/1 to 7/1.
Interestingly, the Saints remained the favorite to win the NFC South, falling slightly from -120 to -105. Tampa Bay jumped up from + 175 to + 150.
The Bucs are now tied with the Saints and Seahawks for the fifth-best Super Bowl odds at Caesars (14/1), trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs (4/1), San Francisco 49ers (7/1), Baltimore Ravens (8/1) and Dallas Cowboys (11/1).
Caesars adjusted the odds for Tampa Bay to make the playoffs from “Yes -155, No + 135” to “Yes -165, No + 145.”
At BetMGM, the Bucs jumped from 16/1 to 9/1 to win the Super Bowl and 8/1 to + 475 to win the NFC.
Circa Sports moved the Bucs’ Super Bowl odds from 15/1 to 11/1 and their win total from 9.5 (Under -130) to 10 (Under -120). Tampa Bay’s odds to make the playoffs moved from -160 to -210.
“It’s a combination of public perception and me thinking there is a decent chance [Gronkowski] can still be really good,” Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
DraftKings moved the Bucs from 14/1 to 13/1 to win the Super Bowl and 7/1 to + 650 to win the NFC. DraftKings also made Gronkowski the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year at 3/1. Gronkowski opened at 300/1 to win MVP at Circa Sports.
Brady’s MVP odds also shortened with Gronkowski back in the fold. Brady moved from 20/1 to 14/1 at PointsBet.
At FanDuel there is a prop bet on which team will win more games this upcoming season: the Patriots or Bucs? Before the Gronk news, it was a dead-heat with both teams listed at -110. It is now Tampa Bay -145, New England + 125.
FanDuel opened Gronkowski’s Over/Under receiving yards at 599.5 with -112 juice on both sides. DraftKings set his Over/Under receiving touchdowns at 5 (-110 juice both sides).
In case you’re wondering about the Patriots, their odds didn’t move. New England’s win total remains 9 (Over -120) at FanDuel, 9.5 (Under -120) at DraftKings and 9 (-110 both sides) at PointsBet. New England is a +100 favorite to win the AFC East at DraftKings (the Bills are the runner up at + 160). The Patriots and Bills are co-favorites to win the AFC at FanDuel and PointsBet (both +120).
New England is 9/1 to win the AFC and 20/1 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings. The Patriots are 10/1 to win the AFC and 22/1 to win the Super bowl at FanDuel.
Bill Belichick is the favorite to win Coach of the Year (8/1) at DraftKings.
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